|
Please find below some thoughts on systematic betting from Hugh G Welsh.
As well as his ideas there are systems which he has developed which have
provided substantial profits since the systems site began in
2001. Contact Hugh, e-mail:
[email protected]
2003 UPDATE
Results by System 2003 (up to November)
|
System |
WINS |
RUNS |
% STRIKE RATE |
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (�1 no tax)
|
% LSP |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
4 |
14 |
29 |
-5.35 |
-38 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
5 |
9 |
56 |
+10.9 |
+121 |
|
All Weather |
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
9 |
23 |
39 |
+5.55 |
+27 |
Actual Results of all System Bets 2001-Nov 2003
|
YEAR |
WINS |
RUNS |
% STRIKE RATE |
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (�1 no tax)
|
% LSP |
|
2001 |
4 |
9 |
44 % |
+3.4 |
+38 |
|
2002 |
12 |
29 |
41 % |
+7.25 |
+25 |
|
2003 (Nov) |
9 |
23 |
39 % |
+5.55 |
+24 |
|
TOTAL |
25 |
61 |
41 % |
+16.2 |
+27 |
The season is
going very well so far with only the All Weather System to come in
December. I will report back early in the new year with a review of the
year and some new ideas for 2004.
The majority of the betting public base their selection of potential
winners on the study of the formbook. For a lot of people this would
involve no more than a casual glance at a race card in the minutes
before a race or a look at their daily newspaper. Others take a closer
look at the formbook spending hours daily going through recent results
and looking at future declarations in great detail. Whereas the first
lot of people have little chance of making a long term profit the second
group who invest a lot of time and effort at least have a better chance
of succeeding.
An alternative method of selection is system betting. This involves
researching past trends to predict future results. Although the research
can be time-consuming it has the advantage of the hard work being done
before the season begins. This generates a set of strict rules that
should be followed throughout the year. It also removes from the
equation personal bias. Most of the betting public have certain personal
likes/dislikes such as for certain jockeys, trainers, horses and
tipsters. This tends to cloud judgement on the outcome of a race. System
betting avoids this.
The closest the average member of the betting public comes to system
betting is old horse racing sayings such as �always back the outsider in
a 3 horse race�.. Any time such a horse wins the commentator will
happily regurgitate the old saying. This is done without researching the
actual data which would reveal that such strategies would soon leave the
system follower in financial trouble.
The key to profitable system betting is good research combined with the
temperament to stick to the rules of the system by betting all
qualifiers. Whereas bookmakers have to bet on all races we don�t. This
can mean going long periods without a bet but it is important to show
patience and wait for the next qualifier. Unlike in the scenario of the
3-runner race if long-term research has shown that a certain type of
horse is likely to win and generate a profit then the system developer
should have confidence in the selections that are generated. These
selections are based on facts not myths. If some qualifiers start to be
left out it usually means that the initial research was not good enough.
Each system should be reviewed at the end of the year to see what the
actual outcome has been and to reflect on any changes that will be
required for the following year. Constant research and a willingness to
change your betting behaviour is required to keep up with the developing
trends in horse racing.
There is a lot of debate about whether to use level stakes betting or a
staking plan but for me it has to be level stakes throughout the year. I
believe that staking plans are ultimately compensating for flaws in the
systems being followed. I set aside a bank at the start of the year and
I take 10 % of this initial figure and back every qualifier throughout
the year to this same level stake. At the end of the year I review my
stake for the following year. Losing runs will happen and it is easier
to maintain level stakes than a staking plan which can quickly multiply
the stake.
Even if you decide not to follow the systems below I hope that they
provide you with some useful ideas for the year ahead and that some of
the statistics generated also point to some horses to avoid.
Since I started this section on system betting in 2001 the results of
the systems have provided good profits which can be seen from the table
below.
ACTUAL RESULTS OF ALL SYSTEM BETS SINCE SYSTEMS SITE BEGAN IN 2001
|
YEAR |
WINS |
RUNS |
% STRIKE RATE |
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (�1 no tax)
|
% LSP |
|
2001 |
4 |
9 |
44 % |
+3.4 |
+38 |
|
2002 |
12 |
29 |
41 % |
+7.25 |
+25 |
|
2003 (Nov) |
9 |
23 |
39 % |
+5.55 |
+24 |
|
TOTAL |
25 |
61 |
41 % |
+16.2 |
+27 |
For 2003 I intend to follow the same systems as 2002 which are detailed
below.
1. Penalty Hurdles
1. Penalty winners running in handicaps over hurdles.
2. May - October
3. Age 5 - 7
4. Distance not 20 to less than 24 furlongs
5. Class DEF
2. Novice Hurdles
1. Novice Conditional Hurdles
2. Winner LTO
3. Set to carry 11.08+
4. May-October
5. Up to 30 days since last run
6. 4-6y
7. Evens and greater in the Racing Post
3. December All Weather
-
December
-
Southwell
& Wolverhampton
-
1st last
time out
-
All
Weather handicaps this run
-
Up to and
including 7 days since a run
-
Not
fillies or mares
-
Winning
distance of over 1 length
-
Last SP of
10/1 or less
These 3 systems generated good profits last year and I believe that they
have the potential to repeat these profits this year. The details of how
these systems were generated along with a detailed list of actual bets
since the systems site began in 2001 until November 2003 is included
below. If anyone wants to get in touch please e-mail me at the above
address.
1. PENALTY HURDLES
This was the
system which first started this section in 2001. The thinking behind the
system is that winners that are penalised are often underestimated on
their next run. Often punters like to make excuses for horses which have
been beaten and ignore those that have shown the courage to win. If a
horse is fit and is a proven winner then it has a good chance of
repeating its success The system showed a good profit in 2001 but then
showed a loss in 2002. The strike rate for 2002 was well below the norm
with a lot of qualifiers finishing second. Over the 2-year period the
system is still in profit and I intend to follow it again in 2003.
RULES
1. Penalty winners running in handicaps over hurdles.
2. May - October
3. Age 5 - 7
4. Distance not 20 to less than 24 furlongs
5. Class DEF
Below is a list of the results of the system between 1997 and 2003:
|
Year |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate |
LSP (�1 no tax) |
% LSP |
|
1997 |
4 |
9 |
44% |
+2.6 |
+29 |
|
1998 |
6 |
11 |
55% |
+8.738 |
+79 |
|
1999 |
5 |
6 |
83% |
+9.416 |
+157 |
|
2000 |
12 |
23 |
52% |
+40.644 |
+177 |
|
2001 |
4 |
9 |
44% |
+3.4 |
+38 |
|
2002 |
4 |
16 |
25% |
-3.3 |
-21 |
|
2003 |
4 |
14 |
29% |
-5.35 |
-38 |
|
Total |
39
|
88 |
44% |
+58.148 |
+66 |
For a detailed breakdown of the factors that influence this system
please click on the link below.
2. NOVICE HURDLES
For the 2002 season I introduced the Novice
Hurdles System that concentrated on Novice Hurdlers that won last time
out and are carrying at least 11.08. The idea for the system came from
talks with a fellow systems developer Joe O�Donnell. His system was
based on winners in novice hurdle races which were forecast favourite
and top rated by both Postmark and Topspeed. After researching his
results I saw that a lot of the winners were carrying penalties for
winning. My thoughts were that horses which have been penalised for
winning are neglected by both the punter and the bookie in the
relatively week novice hurdle races which are run during the summer
months. My system proved to be spectacularly successful in 2002 with 5
winners from 7 qualifiers generating a level stake profit of +146 %. I
will follow this system closely again in 2003.
Initial Rules
1. Novice Conditional Hurdles
2. Winner LTO
3. Set to carry 11.08+
4. May-October
5. Up to 30 days since last run
6. 4-6y
|
Year |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate |
LSP (�1 no tax) |
% LSP |
|
1997 |
7 |
18 |
39% |
-1.17 |
-6.5 |
|
1998 |
10 |
16 |
63% |
6.97 |
+44 |
|
1999 |
9 |
13 |
69% |
6.35 |
+49 |
|
2000 |
12 |
15 |
80% |
8.37 |
+56 |
|
2001 |
10 |
15 |
67% |
9.28 |
+62 |
|
Total |
48 |
77 |
62% |
29.8 |
+39 |
The above
results of the initial rules between 1997 & 2001 show a high strike rate
and substantial profits but there is an interesting split between those
qualifiers which returned at odds on and those at odds against as
follows:
|
Odds |
Wins |
Runs |
% SR |
LSP |
% LSP |
|
Odds On |
30 |
39 |
77 |
+4.642 |
+12 |
|
Odds Against |
18 |
38 |
47 |
+25.1 |
+66 |
Although some people may be tempted to bet
all qualifiers I decided to only bet those qualifiers at odds against in
the Racing Post. My rules for this system in 2002 and the rules which I
will use in 2003 are as follows:
RULES
1. Novice Conditional Hurdles
2. Winner LTO
3. Set to carry 11.08+
4. May-October
5. Up to 30 days since last run
6. 4-6y
7. Evens and greater in the Racing Post
These rules would give the following results between 1997 & 2003
|
Year |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate |
LSP (�1 no tax) |
% LSP |
|
1997 |
3 |
11 |
27% |
-0.25 |
-2.27 |
|
1998 |
5 |
9 |
56% |
6.75 |
+75 |
|
1999 |
3 |
7 |
43% |
4.25 |
+60.7 |
|
2000 |
4 |
7 |
57% |
4.75 |
+67.8 |
|
2001 |
3 |
4 |
75% |
9.6 |
+240 |
|
2002 |
5 |
7 |
71% |
+10.25 |
+146 |
|
2003 |
5 |
9 |
56 |
+10.9 |
+121 |
|
Total |
28 |
54 |
52 |
+46.25 |
+86 |
For interest the details of those selections which were odds on in the
Racing Post in 2002 and 2003 are as follows:
|
Year |
Wins |
Runs |
% SR |
LSP |
% LSP |
|
2002 |
6 |
8 |
75 |
0.5 |
+6 |
|
2003 |
4 |
7 |
57 |
-1.76 |
-25 |
|
Total |
10 |
15 |
67 |
-1.26 |
-8 |
3.
DECEMBER ALL WEATHER SYSTEM
For the 2002 season I also introduced a system for All Weather racing. I
researched the following criteria between December 2001 & March 2002:
-
Southwell
& Wolverhampton
-
1st Last
Time Out
-
All
Weather Handicaps
-
Racing
within 7 days
This criteria produced 26 winners from 72 runners at a strike rate of 36
%. Fillies had a poor record winning only 4 times from 19 runs. December
was the most successful month with 9 wins from 21 runs which improved to
8 wins from 14 runs and a strike rate of 57 % if fillies are left out.
When researching the results of previous years it became clear that
those horses which recorded winning distances of more than 1 length and
returned at an SP of 10/1 or less had the best strike rate. Therefore my
system for the 2002 All Weather season and the rules that I will use in
2003 are as follows:
RULES
- December
-
Southwell
& Wolverhampton
-
1st last
time out
-
All
Weather handicaps this run
-
Up to and
including 7 days since a run
-
Not
fillies or mares
-
Winning
distance of over 1 length
-
Last SP of
10/1 or less
From the period between 1998 to 2002 the results were as follows:
|
Year |
Wins |
Runs |
% Strike Rate |
LSP (�1 no tax) |
% LSP |
|
1998 |
0 |
0 |
- |
- |
- |
|
1999 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
-2 |
-100 |
|
2000 |
5 |
7 |
71 |
+ 9.48 |
+ 135 |
|
2001 |
8 |
9 |
89 |
+ 27 |
+ 300 |
|
2002 |
3 |
6 |
50 |
+0.3 |
+5 |
|
Total |
16 |
24 |
67 |
34.78 |
+145 |
The results
show a healthy profit which was repeated in December 2002. Lingfield has
been left out of my calculations as the track has changed so much in
recent times. The complete list of qualifiers between 1998 and 2002 is
as follows:
|
Year |
Horse |
SP |
Result |
|
1999 |
Sand Hawk |
3 |
2 |
|
1999 |
King Priam |
4 |
5 |
|
2000 |
Indian Dance |
5 |
1 |
|
2000 |
Failed To Hit |
9 |
3 |
|
2000 |
Indian Dance |
13/8 |
1 |
|
2000 |
Indian Dance |
4/6 |
2 |
|
2000 |
Makarim |
8/11 |
1 |
|
2000 |
Inzacure |
11/8 |
1 |
|
2000 |
Mi Odds |
11/4 |
1 |
|
2001 |
JMW Turner |
Evs |
1 |
|
2001 |
More Specific |
6/4 |
1 |
|
2001 |
Celtic Thatcher |
5/2 |
1 |
|
2001 |
Aveiro |
2 |
1 |
|
2001 |
Nite-owl Fizz |
12 |
1 |
|
2001 |
Positive Profile |
5/4 |
1 |
|
2001 |
Aveiro |
5/4 |
1 |
|
2001 |
China Castle |
13/2 |
1 |
|
2001 |
Positive Profile |
6/5 |
2 |
|
2002 |
Cash |
9/2 |
6 |
|
2002 |
Bobby Kennard |
7/4 |
4 |
|
2002 |
Fast Track |
4/5 |
1 |
|
2002 |
Reminiscent |
3/1 |
4 |
|
2002 |
Fast Track |
1/2 |
1 |
|
2002 |
Flying Treaty |
2/1 |
1 |
Below is a complete list of selections since the systems site began in
2001 along with a variety of tables, which shows the performance of each
system by year, and the total performance of all of the systems.
2001 Results By System
|
System |
WINS |
RUNS |
% STRIKE RATE |
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (�1 no tax)
|
% LSP |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
4 |
9 |
44 |
3.4 |
+38 |
|
TOTAL |
4 |
9 |
44 |
3.4 |
+38 |
2002 Results By System
|
System |
WINS |
RUNS |
% STRIKE RATE |
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (�1 no tax)
|
% LSP |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
4 |
16 |
25 |
-3.3 |
-20 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
5 |
7 |
71 |
+10.25 |
+146 |
|
All Weather |
3 |
6 |
50 |
+0.3 |
+5 |
|
TOTAL |
12 |
29 |
41 |
+7.25 |
+25 |
Results by System 2003 (up to November)
|
System |
WINS |
RUNS |
% STRIKE RATE |
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (�1 no tax)
|
% LSP |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
4 |
14 |
29 |
-5.35 |
-38 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
5 |
9 |
56 |
+10.9 |
+121 |
|
All Weather |
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
9 |
23 |
39 |
+5.55 |
+27 |
2001 � Nov 2003 Results By System
|
System |
WINS |
RUNS |
% STRIKE RATE |
LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (�1 no tax)
|
% LSP |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
12 |
39 |
31 |
-5.25 |
-13.5 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
10 |
16 |
63 |
+21.15 |
+132 |
|
All Weather |
3 |
6 |
50 |
+0.3 |
+5 |
|
TOTAL |
25 |
61 |
41 |
+16.2 |
+27 |
Actual Results of all System Bets 2001 � November 2003
|
SYSTEM |
DATE |
HORSE |
SP |
RESULT |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
09 May 01 |
Reggie Buck |
4 |
6 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
08 Jun 01 |
Dabarapour |
1.1 |
2 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
01 Aug 01 |
Javelin |
1.5 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
04 Aug 01 |
Javelin |
3.5 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
05 Sep 01 |
Intox III |
3 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
14 Sep 01 |
Intox III |
4 |
F |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
10 Oct 01 |
Present Bleu |
0.4 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
12 Oct 01 |
Night Fighter |
0.57 |
F |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
28 Oct 01 |
King of the Castle |
5.5 |
8 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
06 May 02 |
Michael's Princess |
3.5 |
2 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
09 May 02 |
Rainbow Dance |
0.91 |
2 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
24 May 02 |
Borehill Joker |
6 |
4 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
03 Jun 02 |
Sharp Belline |
2.75 |
2 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
04 Jun 02 |
Artemesia |
3.5 |
2 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
21 Jun 02 |
Forum Chris |
5 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
15 Jul 02 |
Brooksie |
6 |
1 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
27 Aug 02 |
Peejay Hobbs |
4 |
6 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
04 Sep 02 |
Isam Top |
12 |
2 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
11 Sep 02 |
Tiger Grass |
1.375 |
1 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
25 Sep 02 |
Ontos |
1.75 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
01 Oct 02 |
Tiger Grass |
2.5 |
2 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
03 Oct 02 |
Malakal |
0.33 |
2 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
09 Oct 02 |
My Bold Boyo |
0.67 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
09 Oct 02 |
Il Capitano |
0.615 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
11 Oct 02 |
Kalinnjar |
3 |
2 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
16 Oct 02 |
Latensaani |
1.75 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
17 Oct 02 |
Pure Fun |
1.2 |
4 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
18 Oct 02 |
Grave Doubts |
2.25 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
25 Oct 02 |
Wend's Day |
1.875 |
2 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
25 Oct 02 |
Rutledge Red |
1.5 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
28 Oct 02 |
Chem's Truce |
0.67 |
2 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
31 Oct 02 |
Argento |
3 |
2 |
|
All Weather |
07 Dec 02 |
Cash |
4.5 |
6 |
|
All Weather |
13 De 02 |
Bobby Kennard |
1.75 |
4 |
|
All Weather |
16 Dec 02 |
Fast Track |
0.8 |
1 |
|
All Weather |
16 Dec 02 |
Reminiscent |
3 |
4 |
|
All Weather |
20 Dec 02 |
Fast Track |
0.5 |
1 |
|
All Weather |
27 Dec 02 |
Flying Treaty |
2 |
1 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
09 May 03 |
Perouse |
2 |
9 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
15 May 03 |
Irish Distinction |
2 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
26 May 03 |
Court Champagne |
3.5 |
P |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
06 Jun 03 |
Accepting |
2.75 |
5 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
14 Jun 03 |
Maiden Voyage |
1 |
1 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
21 Jun 03 |
Marrel |
5 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
27 Jun 03 |
Intox III |
6.5 |
3 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
27 Jun 03 |
Italian Counsel |
6 |
6 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
28 Jun 03 |
Champagne Harry |
3 |
2 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
06 Jul 03 |
Jollyolly |
3 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
17 Jul 03 |
Breathtaking View |
2.75 |
5 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
22 Jul 03 |
Sovereign State |
5 |
3 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
12 Aug 03 |
Xellance |
0.91 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
23 Aug 03 |
Lord Of The Track |
2.75 |
U |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
14 Sep 03 |
Parsons Pride |
5.5 |
5 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
25 Sep 03 |
Second Paige |
5 |
1 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
05 Oct 03 |
Jonalton |
3.5 |
3 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
10 Oct 03 |
Cush Jewel |
4 |
3 |
|
Novice Hurdle |
14 Oct 03 |
Prize Ring |
6.5 |
7 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
15 Oct 03 |
Red Sun |
0.83 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
15 Oct 03 |
Bolton Barrie |
1.2 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
16 Oct 03 |
Around Before |
0.615 |
1 |
|
Penalty Hurdle |
24 Oct 03 |
Wild Power |
3.33 |
6 |
Click here for:
Previous Summer NH
System
@Hugh
Welsh
|